Taiwan Invasion: Risk, Resolve & Response

Will Xi Jinping give the order or will he decide to invade Taiwan? It's always been his goal; Taiwan is unfinished business from China Civil War. Mao Zedong could not capture it, so Xi Jinping would love to do it. It would immortalize him and secure his legacy.

Here we're looking at three questions:

1.    How difficult would an invasion of Taiwan be?

2.   Is China ready for the invasion?

3.   What is the world's strategy?

 Let's start with the first question; an invasion would be extremely difficult. Taiwan is not some helpless island. They're armed to the teeth, At the Global Firepower rankings Taiwan ranks 24^th. They are ahead of NATO allies like Sweden and Canada. On the other hand China ranks at number3^rd. But wars are not fought on tables in the real world. China will face added challenges like geography and weather. They will have to land soldiers in Taiwan and that means crossing the stretch of water i.e. the Taiwan Strait. It's around 140 km long. It's also very choppy waters not ideal for an amphibious operation. But let's assume that China beats the elements, Taiwan will still be prepared. Their strategy is called porcupine defense. Porcupine, this animal has sharp Spikes all over its body and tail so no one dares to attack it. Why, because they know that the cost will be too high and that is Taiwan's strategy. They have invested a lot in defense. Under the last president, defense spending increased by 5% every year. They have spent 2.5% of their GDP on defense. They have a variety of defensive weapons like anti-ship missiles; Naval mines, landing spikes and mobile missile launchers. But again let's assume that China beats all of this & they land on Taiwan shores, then once more they would face geography. Taiwan has a lot of rugged mountains which offers natural protection to the island regime and if they reach the cities, it's going to be Urban Warfare like what we're seeing in Gaza. So in short it won't be easy, Taiwan has prepared and practiced to repel a Chinese Invasion. Their way of life depends on it so expect a tough and bloody fight if it comes.

This brings us to the second question, Is China ready for the invasion? Does Xi Jinping have the appetite for war? United States officials have made their own assessment. They think that Xi will wait until 2027. By then he should have enough fire power. But could he strike earlier as China's growth is losing steam. Their GDP growth has largely stalled. It is expected to be 3.5% by the end of this decade. Same with their population, China's labor force will be shrinking in 2030 by almost 1%. So, there are two ways of looking at it. One, it may force Xi Jinping to advance his invasion because he may think now is the time. If this window closes, it may never happen again. That's one way of looking at it. The second option he may take the advice of Deng Xiaoping.

Den said: “Hide your strength, bide your time.”

Xi Jinping may tweak that advice, he may bide his time and rebuild his strength. The Chinese president is not known to be a Maverick, so all bets are on delaying the attack. Any Invasion would trigger sanctions and Beijing must prepare for that too. China has almost 1.4 billion people. Hence it needs to secure basic resources for them like food and power. Now, Beijing is already stockpiling food grains. Reports say they have rice and bean for up to 2 years but energy is a bit tricky. Most of China's fuel and gas comes from friendly Nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia but they're transported in shipping tankers. ‘Tankers’ that can be cut off, so China is working on a solution. For that, their Belt and Road Project (BRI) is trying to link West Asia via land. They're also building gas pipelines from Russia, so China needs to take a lot of boxes here before they invade. They will get one chance at this, which brings us to the final question:

What is the world’s strategy?

The Americans, as always are at the forefront of it. A US law requires the White House to support Taiwan but it does not say how? Is it by deploying soldiers or giving weapons or simply offering political support? This lack of clarity is called strategic ambiguity and Joe Biden has stirred this spot many times. He has said that, the US will defend Taiwan and his plan is to build alliances. In the neighborhood, the countries with U.S bases are Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Guam. There are thousands of U.S soldiers stationed in these bases and not to mention lots of firepower. So, if China invades the US will be closed by either to intervene directly or to run support operations and that's the military side of things but frankly the U.S alone won't be enough. We're talking about a very important region. Taiwan supplies 90% of the most advanced semiconductors to the world. The Waters around it are also crucial, it carries around 21% of global trade so trouble in Taiwan is trouble for the whole world. Yet most countries don't seem bothered. There is a lot of activism for Palestine but we haven't seen the same for Taiwan. Countries first priority is to be changed. China's biggest weapon is the “One China Policy” and most countries recognize Taiwan as part of China according to the one China policy. So, these countries may criticize a Chinese Invasion but how can they actively oppose it as their own policy is anti-Taiwan and diluting this policy will be hard. Taiwan could use its chip superpower to woo other countries. It could set up factories or investments abroad and frankly that's the only way. For most countries otherwise China is way more important than Taiwan until that changes their policies may not.

Only time answers all these speculations……..

— Team Yuva Aaveg

(Akhileshwar Maurya)

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